الخميس، 20 سبتمبر 2012

How to Trade The News

You need to know tho (2) things about news trading. First you need to know when important news gets released. The second thing to know, is what kind of numbers will make your news trades work.
The first one is easy. Just look at any forex news calendar to see what news releases are due out and at what time of day. The one I use every day is the Forexfactory Forex News Calendar. This calendar shows you at a quick glance, all the news scheduled for release for the current week. The ones with Red folders are the ones to consider trading.
The second one is what can make you a lot money. To make money trading the news, the news release itself has to be a "shock". In other words, every news event has a Consensus number. This is the number the market is expecting. If that number is hit, or very close to consensus, then 99% of the time, that is considered a "No Trade". In other words, the numbers came out "As Expected". There were no surprises and chances are very good price will not be affected. However, when there is a surprise deviation, this is when price takes off. If the number is a "Good Surprise", then that's good for a currency and that currency would increase in value. If the number is a "Bad Surprise", the opposite happens and the currency you're trading dwould ecrease in value. As news traders, we look for these deviations from consensus and that's what makes us money.
So, the Million Dollar question is, "How do you know what a good deviation number should be?" The only way to know is to look at past performance of news releases and see what numbers caused the currencies to move. The one and only service I know of that has all this historical information in one easy to read place is from Fast Economic News 

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